No It Isn't

The below is a comment attached to CNet's latest Is WiMax Dead? story.

WiMax's primetime has come and gone. It was announced, what, about 2 years ago? It took ev-do, HSDPA, and other 3G networks (excusing t-mobile) that long to get a ton of coverage. That beginning hype-time, in my opinion, is one of the most important part of a release.

(Correct me if I'm wrong about any of this, I don't want to appear troll-ish)

Nokia's has just discontinued the N810 tablet with WiMax-- a device that is, incidentally, too small to be a laptop of any sort, even a netbook, and too big to be a phone, and as such, I thought was never going to be a success. Nokia is still making a others versions, though.

So any technology that takes 2 years between the formulation of the standard and the rollout of commercial service is dead?

The "wimax is dead" meme is pretty popular right now. Full disclosure: I work for a company that is rolling out WiMax.

First of all, WiMax doesn't compete with EVDO and HSDPA and other 3G networks, because it's (trying to be) a faster, 4G network.

In addition, because unlike those other technologies, it's based on (rather than simply capable of supporting) IP it is very appropriate for companies offering fixed connectivity using IP who want to expand into wireless, or voice-centric companies thinking of expanding into data, or companies who are primarily interested in offering fixed service but are blocked because of regulatory or market problems.

EVDO and HSDPA are extensions to systems already in use by major wireless operators. While I'm sure many WiMax vendors would have liked to, and tried very hard to, woo those operators to their architecture, the technology itself does not depend on this, any more than the ubiquity of WiFi devices depended on having commercial operators.

WiMax is more dependent on it however, and that is why it takes time to go from an announced standard to a commercial service. The fact that older technologies, in that time, became more widespread does not mean that other technologies cannot also become popular later in certain markets.

In my opinion, the entire Clearwire situation has been a black eye for WiMax. Because their announced plans were so ambitious, many vendors focused on them as potential clients; the WiMax forum fast-tracked the spectrum Clearwire intended to use (2.5Ghz) and so most of the activity is in this band, despite the fact that Korea Telecom already had a working commercial operation in another spectrum (2.3Ghz) that was built on a system very close to WiMax.

For those into the details, KT's system uses the 2.3Ghz band with a channel size of 7.5Mhz; the WiMax forum's standard profiles supported 5 and 10Mhz channels at the time. Since then, the standard was expanded to include 7.5Mhz channels even though no other operator is expected to deploy it. KT calls their commercial system by the trademark "WiBro", and the slight difference between that implementation and the initial published 802.16e standard for mobile WiMax, with its 5 and 10Mhz channels, has caused a lot of confusion.

The bottom line is that while at the moment the individual devices are not compatible, for all intents and purposes WiBro is a WiMax system; it operates on the same standards and protocols excepting the channel size. Everything WiBro can do, WiMax can do and vice-versa. The WiMax device ecosystem has not yet reached the maturity of the GSM ecosystem, with devices supporting multiple frequency bands and multiple versions of standards. Eventually it will. At least two companies are working on, and one (HTC) has produced a hybrid handset that supports GSM and WiMax, and is selling it in Russia.

So, to answer your post: no, the "hype time" between announcement and commercial launch is actually not the most important time. If it was, I'd be marching in the "LTE is dead" camp because it was announced quite awhile ago as well and as of this writing, the standard isn't even finished, and commercial launches are more than a year away by the most optimistic timescale, not even taking into account the impact of the financial crisis. At the same time, many WiMax commercial launches are proceeding.

However, since WiMax is built on IP and supports data natively and voice over IP, it's likely that rather than starting out focused on handsets and mobility, the first clients will be laptops, desktops in areas where wired connectivity is unavailable, and then into handsets.

WiMax is not dead.